ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA
Abstract
This study examined the relationship between economic diversification and unemployment in Nigeria for the time span of 1981-2020, with the help of time series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Unit Root test, Cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test were employed in the analysis. The variables employed in the analysis are real unemployment rate (UNEM as a dependent variable) while independent variables include growth rate of agricultural sector to GDP (GRAS), growth rate of manufacturing sector to GDP (GRMS), growth rate of oil sector to GDP (GROS), government expenditure (GEX), total export (EXP) and money supply (MS). The results of our unit root test showed that all the variables were stationary at first difference. The cointegration test showed that there was four cointegrating vectors and this necessitated the application of Vector Error Correction Mechanism; which revealed that growth rate of both agricultural sector (GRAS) and oil sector (GROS) is positive and statistically significant to unemployment rate in Nigeria; while the of growth rate of manufacturing sector (GRMS) though negatively related to unemployment but statistically insignificant. Furthermore, the results of the Paiwise Granger Causality test revealed that there is no causation existing between the share of agricultural sector to GDP and unemployment rate in Nigerian within the period under study. Therefore, based on the above findings, the study recommends that An effective partnership between government and agencies in exploiting abundant agricultural and solid mineral which are well distributed all over the country, is needed so as to accelerate the sustainable growth and development in Nigeria
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